MSFT, weekly, 3yrs.

i had a tough time with this chart trying to figure out a pattern (if any). i first used the Fan Principle to signal a reversal in trend when trendlines 1, 2, and 3 were broken.

at first glance, MSFT looked like a head and shoulders reversal but i couldnt figure out where to put the neckline and which troughs to pick. March07 to July08? or August07 to March08?

i settled with troughs March08 to July08 which formed a very skewed Head & Shoulders reversal with the left shoulder looking more like a head! In that very left shoulder it looks as though a double top has also formed. The peak of the head to the neckline ($32.00 - $26.00 = $6.00) gives us a size of $6.00. Breakdown of the neckline occurred at about $23.50. So the TP is $23.50 - $6.00 = $17.50

MSFT:

try ko nga. let me keep it simple

yeahbah wrote:

QUOTE:
try ko nga. let me keep it simple :side:

thanks boss yeahbah!

so my questions would be:

1. in your chart would u short at the trendline break with target price $17.73?
2. is that the ROB BOOKER (robbooker.com) style of analysis?
3. was the head & shoulder reversal i drew for MSFT correct? it's interesting how we seem to have the same TP ~$17 but with different methods

jonf1tch wrote:

QUOTE:
i dont have the exact text but it looks as though he uses the lower peak based on his website at stockcharts.com - Double Top (Reversal)

My updated chart is as such with a revised TP now at $43.20 --which is much closer to master Danny's prediction heheh.

our notes (below) seem to imply using a base (blue dotted line) from the highest peak to the neckline and not the lower peak. what gives?

1. If it closes below the support trendline, yes I would short bill gates.
2. yes, support/resistance trading; no indicators. That's one of many system he developed. Simple is it not?
3. I really can't tell if it is a H&S pattern because of the left should is too weird. 17.73 is an obvious target, that's a support line. I also used fibonacci to calculate the target, and it gave me 13 which is the last support line. so scrap na itong fibonacci nyahaha

thanks boss yeahbah!

#3 - oki doks, back to the drawing board.