News / Philippine Stock Market

PSEi Outlook For Mar. 3 - 7, 2008 By Bonner Dytoc March 02, 2008

Apparently, our index can’t seem to make up its mind on what direction it wants to take.  This is the problem when we’re caught in a consolidation and the daily change in sentiment overwhelms many.  One day it’s up, one day it’s down.  But overall, we aren’t going anywhere definite.

What is clear in the year to date performance of the PSEi is that we are now below the channel we have defined before, and the index is also below the moving averages.  Initially it’s a bearish mood.  Yet, due to the current consolidation, there may yet be a glimmer of hope for us that the market could soon try to rally but it won’t go too far.  This part is a bit hard to call considering that the MACD has curved downwards again.  Therefore, I can’t see any confirmation of any bullishness in the index yet.

One thing to note though is that many active issues have currently taken up a consolidation phase too, much like the index.  Are we waiting for something big to happen?  It remains to be seen.  The only part that we should be careful about is that the prior trend to the consolidation is down, which means that this consolidation could just continue the downtrend soon.  I hope I’m wrong.