My 28th Day as a Swing Trader
"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios.. The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market." George Soros
i'd have to say that i am happy with myself. i reached a +10% gain in just 28 days of trading. i learned some lessons along the way. but i dont think its enough to be called an expert. im still a beginner. what i do have is a strategy. and so far its working.
Aboitiz Power (AP) was very good to me. opened at its low of 22.15. high of 23.40. i was able to sell it at the closing price of 23.35. RSI is already at the overbought area, MACD just posted a buy signal last tuesday. i was also thinking of waiting it out, but i'd rather not risk it. i think its already satisfactory to sell whenever RSI is at its overbought levels and transfer the cash to another vehicle with a good condition and position.
although sometimes i find myself having emotion when the stock is up. before i had some emotion when the stock goes down (Perfect example was my transactions with RFM). but i think i have overcome this a bit. AP also went down after i bought the stock. but i stuck to my indicators which were showing good positions on the stock. it paid off.
Vista Land (VLL) opened at 3.36, high of 3.39, low of 3.32, finally closed at 3.33. RSI still below its overbought, MACD still hasnt converged but will post a buy signal when it will converge. still looking good.
now since i have some cash to invest, i did some reviews on the fundamentals of the following companies. these companies have been actively traded in the Philippine Stock Market for weeks.
Metropolitan Bank and Trust (MBT)
2009 Price/Earnings = 13.49
2010 Price/Book Value =1.63
2010 Debt/Equity = 9
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.61
SM Investments (SM)
2009 Price/Earnings = 12.39
2010 Price/Book Value = 1.51
2010 Debt/Equity = 1.36
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.40
2009 Price/Earnings =9.36
2010 Price/Book Value = 1.14
2010 Debt/Equity = 0.72
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.88
Ayala Corp. (AC)
2009 Price/Earnings = 21.31
2010 Price/Book Value = 1.93
2010 Debt/Equity =1.33
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.52
Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)
2009 Price/Earnings =17.80
2010 Price/Book Value = 2.88
2010 Debt/Equity = 10.41
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.35
These 3 stocks have always been in the talks, so i also did a review on them..
SM Development Corp. (SMDC)
2009 Price/Earnings =10.58
2010 Price/Book Value = 3.50
2010 Debt/Equity = 1.19
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.29
Oriental Peninsula (ORE)
2009 Price/Earnings = Negative
2010 Price/Book Value = 2.58
2010 Debt/Equity = 0.13
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.39
Philippine National Bank (PNB)
2009 Price/Earnings = 7.35
2010 Price/Book Value = 1.34
2010 Debt/Equity = 8.05
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.74
judging from the numbers, i think my safest bet would be MEG. the 3 banks MBT, BPI, and PNB have so much debt compared to their equities (although i wouldnt know if these figures are good for industry standards), AC is too high up on Price/Earnings Ratio, SMDC is too high up on P/BV ratio, ORE didnt make money last year.
checking the stock position on MEG based on the technicals, RSI is still below overbought levels, MACD will post a buy on converge.
ive been convinced on MEG based on its fundamentals, bought it at 2.42 today.
Daily Dip Notes: October 7, 2010
Metro Pacific Investments (MPI) dipped -2.68% today. RSI already posted a sell signal, while MACD converged yesterday posting a buy signal, conflicting signals, i sense more correction coming from a breakthrough at 4.0 resistance.
JG Summit (JGS) dipped -1.75%, both RSI and MACD posting sell signals. more correction for this stock. id wait for it to intersect with its upper moving average.
Manila Electric Company (Meralco MER) dipped -1.49%, RSI posted a sell signal days ago, while its MACD is about to converge and will be posting a sell signal too, more correction to come.
Lepanto Consolidated Mining A (LC) dipped -3.23%, RSI almost at mid level but just coming from a sell signal days ago, MACD also posted a sell signal yesterday, Mining stock, more correction to come.
my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com