Swing Trader/Day Trader Thread

[cliffhanger]

My 20th Day as a Swing Trader
sometimes its better to do nothing than to do something..

like why i bought Aboitiz Power (AP)...

my AP share price keeps going down. looks like its going to rebound though. it looks like its at its support now. it opened at its high of 21, had a low of 20.25, closed at 20.30 (same as previous). but im sticking to the plan. theres still a lot of volume being traded with this stock.

i have to be a little more patient. look at my Metro Pacific Investments (MPI), good example of how a little patience wont hurt.

MPI opened at its low of 3.72, high of 3.85, closed at 3.80. i actually think that this stock could go to 4.0 this week alone. the top 2 most active stock today, there has to be momentum on this one. plus its good fundamentals keeps backing it up.

my First Philippine Holdings (FPH) did just ok today. opened at 68.95, low of 68, high of 69.45, closed at 69. ill be keeping this stock for now. it still has a good volume of over 30M in value. hopefully my low purchase will be enough to withstand any minor or major corrections.

now for my Daily Dip Notes.

Philippine National Bank (PNB) dipped -5%, this is sort of expected. price of this stock accelerated to 70 from 41 just within a month. some experts think that this is due to their merger with Allied Bank. id stay away from this stock for now.

Lepanto Consolidated Mining A & B (LC and LCB) had a dip of around -7% and -8% respectively. this has a lot more to come. it just had a 100% increase in its price in just within the month too. but congrats those who were able to capitalize on this stock.

Megaworld (MEG) looks like its on an uptrend, and today it dipped -3.3%, hitting its support. this might have been a good buy for today. although theres still a chance that it might go down further this week, but i doubt that it will breakthrough its support.

Atlas Mining (AT) dipped -3% today, it just came from 10.5 to 16 just within the month. there has to be more correction on this stock. mining stocks fluctuate too much for me.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) dipped -2.2%, chart actually looks like its trending up. but it just came from a high of 31 with a month low of 25 in september and even 22 in august, pretty good gains for those who were able to buy at these levels. but i think it will dip further. can anyone comment on the fundamentals on this one?

that will be all for today. i hope all of you will have a good week ahead.

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 21st Day as a Swing Trader
im still waiting...

a little patience please...

still hoping that my Aboitiz Power (AP) will be able to produce some positive swing for me. just closed at 21 today, up +3.4% from yesterday. ive been reading news that AP has been actively acquiring different power plants around the country. looks like the future is bright with AP.

Metro Pacific Investments (MPI) just held its ground at 3.8 today which is also its low, high at 3.83..

First Philippine Holdings (FPH) also held its ground at 69 which is also its high, with a low of 68.

the one thing that keeps me secured with both MPI and FPH just on trading grounds is its volume. MPI 311M in volume traded, while FPH had 42M in volume traded.


Daily Dip Notes:

First Gen Corp. (FGEN) had a dip of -1.5% today. it was also the most active stock today. i dont think its safe to say that there is a trend on its chart yet. it actually rose from 10 to 12 in just fifteen days (sept 1-15).

Lepanto Consolidated Mining A (LC) still had a dip of -5.6% today. i cant see any trend yet on this stock. i dont know where the bottom will be to serve for its correction.

Philippine National Bank (PNB) had a dip of -2.8%. this stock also came from a rapid upward acceleration on its price. i dont think its safe yet. though 3 month trend looks like its going upwards.

Metropolitan Bank and Trust Company (MBT) had a dip of -1.58%. upward trend, looks like a good buy for swing traders or dip buyers. take a look at its chart. but some might think that it might be better to wait for the intersection between one of its higher Moving Averages to signal flirtation of its support.

Universal Robina Corp. (URC) took a dip of just -1.2%. trending upwards. but id wait for it to intersect its higher Moving Average before i take a buy.


Digital Telecommunications Philippines (DGTL) took another dip of -3.61%. still no clear trend. i predict more correction to come because of a rapid acceleration from 1.40 to 1.68 in just 24 days (September 1-24). still too risky to buy.

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 22nd Day as a Swing Trader
it was a reverse swing day for my stocks..

the past couple of days monitoring the market, ive noticed that stocks usually rebound when its nearing the market close for the day.

but it didnt happen..

my Aboitiz Power (AP) opened today at 21.2, then had a high of 21.35.. i thought this is it.. its finally on its way up.. then around mid-day trade 10AM, it started going down.. i was not concerned about this because normally stocks fall in between 10-1130AM then rebound after.. but it wasnt able to rebound..it closed at 20.75, -1.2% lower from yesterday..

a similar situation goes for Metro Pacific Investments (MPI). it opened at 3.81, had a high of 3.95, i thought we will be able to hit 4.0 on this one.. but it started going down on mid-day and never recovered..it closed at par with yesterday at 3.80..

my First Philippine Holdings (FPH) did better, but still insignificant.. it opened at 69.50, had a high of 70.2, low of 69.10, closed at 69.45.. theres a lot of good news on this stock though.. their fundamentals looks like they have some considerable cash, and they have a lot of plans for it..

im still keeping these stocks.. again, the very good thing about them is that they have a high volume.. MPI with 466M (Number 1 most active today), AP with 167M, FPH with 23M..

but i guess there were more sellers than buyers still. i hope this will turn-around soon..

DAILY DIP NOTES:

Energy Development Corp. (EDC) had a dip of -3.55%..but was 2nd most active stock today..it posted a sell signal in its RSI indicator. i sense more correction to come..

Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. (MBT) had a dip of -1.74%. third most active stock today. actually looks close to its support, amost at an intersection with its higher moving average, RSI indicator at mid 50s.. looks like a good buy.. but i predict a week or 2 for it to rebound.. but still a good buy..

Alliance Global Group (AGI) had a dip of -1.38%. i predict more correction to come though. it jumped from 6.4 to 9.5 in just 24 days (September 1-24). too rapid a serge..

SM Investments (SM) dipped -1.85%. it looks like its still far from intersecting with its higher moving average though.. id wait for more correction before i buy..

JG Summit Holdings (JGS) dipped -1.73%. this stock has been consistently going up since february. but its RSI is at the overbought levels. id like for it to intersect with its moving average before i buy..

Filinvest Land (FLI) dipped -2.85%. looks its close to its support, RSI at its mid levels.. id buy and expect it to come around within a week or 2..

SM Development Corp. (SMDC) had a dip of -2.21%. i sense more correction to come. 7.29 to 10.98 in just 27 days (Sept. 1-27).. id buy this for long term like months..

for those who want to study the technical terms that im using, you can check www.investopedia.com or check www.pse.com.ph......... study the technical terms that you dont understand.. dont be intimidated.. their definitions are easy to understand.. concentrate on the definition of the indicators instead of the math..

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 23rd Day as a Swing Trader
"I've lost tremendous amounts of money in various markets and I think that that's something that makes you better at my job, not worse." - Jim Cramer


So much red...


due to what? US-China Currency Arguments? Europe economic concerns? Profit taking? please comment on this..


my Aboitiz Power (AP) opened at par with previous at 20.75, low 20.25, high 21.05, finally closing at 20.9.. this is the only stock of my mine that was green..


First Philippine Holdings (FPH) opened at its high of 69.5, low of 67.6, finally closed at 68.9, down -0.79% from yesterday.


Metro Pacific Investments (MPI) opened at 3.81, high of 3.84, i thought support at 3.82 was strong, but it went to a low of 3.70, finally closed at 3.76, -1.05% from previous day.


you will see the effect this day will have on my portfolio.. i didnt have any action again today..


DAILY DIP NOTES:


Due to a lot of bargains and reds today, i will only comment on the stocks that i will recommend a buy based on its stock position in its chart..


Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV) dipped -3.8%, RSI indicators at the midrange, almost intersecting with its moving average. id buy it and keep for probably weeks.


Megaworld (MEG) also almost intersecting with its moving average, dipped -3%, RSI in mid-range, id buy and swing..


Filinvest Land (FLI) also almost intersecting with its moving average, dipped -2.94% plus -2.85% from yestrerdays dip, RSI in mid-range, buy and swing too..


lets just hope tomorrow will be better.. the bad thing is, its a friday tomorrow. usually people take profits on fridays due to the weekend.

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 23th Day as a Swing Trader
"As long as you enjoy investing, you'll be willing to do the homework and stay in the game. That's why I try to make the show so entertaining, because if you aren't interested, you'll either miss the opportunity to make money in the market or not pay enough attention and end up losing your shirt." Jim Cramer

Green is good?


unfortunately, theres not enough green yet for me..

First Philippine Holdings (FPH) opened at its high of 68.5, low of 68, closed at 69. volume 18M. High RSI though. this stock was mostly down the whole day, until it finally recovered as the market closed. looks like its still on its way down. but ill still be waiting for this to turn around.

Aboitiz Power (AP) opened at low of 20.5, high of 21.3, closed at par with yesterday at 20.9. high volume of 137M, RSI mid range, technically looks good through its chart. im a little confident that it will go up.

Metro Pacific Investments (MPI) opened at its low of 3.76, high of 3.82, closed at 3.81. still high volume of 131M, things are still looking good for this stock.

DAILY DIP NOTES:

most active stocks were mostly green..

except for SM Investments Corp. (SM) which dipped 6.5% today, RSI close to mid-range, no intersection yet with its moving average though. if you buy now, i think it could recover in a week though.

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 25th Day as a Swing Trader
"This market right now is moving on nothing more than emotions. Guess what? It almost always moves on emotions." David Bach

i'd have to say i was more emotional before. im so glad i added one of the most important equities to my portfolio: PATIENCE.


but is it good to use the word patience? the word is still based on emotion. it signifies that one is resisting something. i want to be more bulletproof than that. i'd like to be able to take whatever the market throws at me. being patient is not enough. the words that come out of my mind are OBJECTIVE, ANALYTICAL, LOGICAL. but whats the best word that could summarize all those 3 words? can you suggest?

speaking of being analytical, my First Philippine Holdings (FPH) hasn't been moving much. RSI is at its overbought levels, MACD looks like its going up though. i cant be sure on this one. i thought that i had to sell it. this vehicle is moving, but there are other vehicles that could be moving faster. i sold my shares at 69.15. according to my calculations, i gained +1.48% from the sale after tax and expenses. im still going to be looking out for this one though. i'd probably buy on dips.


Selling my FPH left me with some cash. i bought Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL). ive been analyzing the fundamentals on this stock. Price/BV ratio less than 1, Debt/Equity ratio less than 1, Price/Earnings ratio 6.98. this is obviously fundamentally cheap. it had a good volume too today, 49M traded. active enough. bought it at 3.30.


Aboitiz Power (AP) did really well today. 2nd most active stock. opened at 21, low of 20.9, high of 22.1, finally closed at 22.05, gained 5.5% from the previous closing price. not enough for me to sell it though. RSI hasnt reached overbought levels yet, and MACD is about to signal a buy signal soon. i sense that his stock will do good this week. im still keeping it.


Metro Pacific Investments (MPI) too still has a long way to go this week even if it did really well today. top 5 most active stock, opened at its low of 3.81, high of 3.87, finally closed at 3.86. im still not selling it. id be waiting for the RSI to reach the overbought levels. its MACD is also about to signal a buy signal soon. i hope for it to reach 4.0 this week. i was actually considering top slicing my MPI shares. but its technical indicators are looking too good. i think this vehicle is going to move real fast this week.


DAILY DIP NOTES:


come to think of it, most stocks did well today. there were no notable dips seen in the list of most active stocks. the highest dip can be seen with International Container Terminal Services (ICT) with -1.48%. but i dont think thats too much of a dip. i would'nt be buying this stock just yet based on its position.


the other dip among the most active stock was Lepanto Consolidated Mining A (LC) with -4.9%. but i wouldn't recommended buying on this dip. a mining stock that just accelerated a 100% achieved in september alone.






i think you some readers might be confused by my actions. i said before that my strategy was to sell when i gain or lose 5%. yet with my AP and MPI already gained that figure, and im still not selling. why? because of the technical indicators that are telling me that the prices that they have now isnt at its peak or overbought levels yet.


some may think that i might be inconsistent, changing my strategy at the middle of the game. but i think whats happening is actually good, i'm learning, evolving and growing. im seeing whats works for me. and i want to test those little lessons that i learned along the way, after 25 days of being a swing trader to date.


today i am announcing a change in my trading strategy. basically, this strategy has been around for so long. its called "BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH".


now i guess the question is, how do i know at what point is low and at what point is high? aside from the usual chart trending, i will be using technical indicators called the RSI and MACD. (you can look them up at www.investopedia.com, www.wikipedia.org, or www.pse.com.ph) their definitions are simple, dont pay too much attention to the math, just have a look at their visuals. i think they are easy to understand. these signal overbought levels, trends, and buying and selling points. now i know some of you might say that the RSI and MACD tend to send conflicting signals from each other, which some of you interpret as a bad combination. but i think its a good combination. of course conflicting signals tells you something. but when their signals are consistent, then i think it tells you something too. i will commit to you that i will do a move when both of their signals are consistent, and not make a move when their signals are conflicting.



you will also see me mention some fundamental numbers from time to time. i believe that it should matter too to a trader. because aside from riding a fast vehicle, it also is very important to know the present condition of that vehicle. you cant be going on a long road trip riding a vehicle that can go as fast as 200km/h just to have it breakdown in the middle of nowhere. i believe that the fundamentals represents the condition of the company you wish to follow.

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 26th Day as a Swing Trader
"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." Warren Buffett




i didnt buy Vista Land (VLL) on a dip. today it did post a dip before it closed. though it opened at 3.34, low of 3.19, finally closed at par with yesterday at 3.30. RSI levels are below overbought, MACD are about to converge. looking good.


Aboitiz Power (AP) opened at 22, low of 21.8, high of 22.4, finally closing at par with yesterday at 22.05. RSI are still below overbought levels, though its MACD already posted a buy signal. once RSI are at its overbought thats the time when ill be selling.


Metro Pacific Investments (MPI) opened at 3.86, low of 3.83, high of 3.94, closed at 3.92, up 1.55% from yesterday. RSI very near its overbought levels already, and MACD will converge soon which will post a buy signal. im still selling it when RSI is on its overbought levels.


DAILY DIP NOTES:


Lepanto Consolidated Mining A & B (LC and LCB) dipped -6.19% and -7.41% respectively. i think we've been consistently seeing these stocks taking a dip. i wont comment further on this.


International Container Terminal Services (ICT) dipped -2.88%. RSI and MACD just came from a sell signal. it would be good to buy this when it intersects with its moving average. good volume too at 143M.


Ayala Corp. (AC) dipped -2.06%. RSI just posted a sell signal last friday, while its MACD are not converging anytime soon. id wait for more correction, particularly an intersection with its moving average.


Meralco (MER) dipped -2.04%. RSI already at its overbought levels. MACD looks to be converging and will be posting a sell signal when it will converge. came from a rapid acceleration though, 180 to 229 in just a month (sept 1 to oct 1) i guess there will be more correction to come.



Metropolitan Bank and Trust (MBT) dipped -1.56%. RSI near mid-range, MACD still not converging but will post a buy when it will converge. looks like a good buy, but ill expect to post considerable gains within weeks.


my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 27th Day as a Swing Trader
"I have a million dollars in the stock market, because if I lose a million dollars, I don’t personally care." Suze Orman

Metro Pacific Investments (MPI) just broke through the 4.0 barrier today, even going as high as 4.11. too bad i sold all my shares at 4.04. for the most part of today, the price was hovering around 4.01-4.02. RSI already at its overbought levels, but its just now that its MACD converged and posted a buy signal. i noticed that the MACD and the RSI on this stock hasn't been agreeing too much on their signals in the past. i also noticed that the RSI has been more successful in determining its peaks, at the same time its MACD being late with its signals. so i went with the RSI for now. i thought that selling it at 4.04 would already be very good actually. but if i held it off and sold it at 4.11, i think my total equity would already be close to PHP 33,000, which is a gain of 10% after just 27 days. but i cant do anything about it now. i just hope my Aboitiz Power (AP) and Vista Land (VLL) will be able to take me there by this week.


AP opened at 22.35, high of 22.45, finally closed at its low of 22.15. RSI very near its overbought levels, MACD already gave a buy signal. ill probably sell this when RSI is at its overbought level.


VLL opened at its high of 3.38, low of 3.32, closed at 3.35. RSI below its overbought, MACD still hasnt converged yet. im waiting this one out.


i guess with the cash that i have from selling my MPI, the question is which stock to buy.


DAILY DIP NOTES:


the only considerable dip today from the most active stocks is SM investments Corp. (SM). dipped -2.94%, RSI below its overbought level, but MACD just posted a sell signal yesterday. based on its MACD, more correction is to come. i will be checking the fundamentals on this one to see if its a good vehicle to ride.


i think you will see me buy more equities this week. ill be doing some fundamental research on a number of stocks. ill also be evaluating if there will be good entry points based on its RSI and MACD. ill keep u posted.

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 28th Day as a Swing Trader
"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios.. The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market." George Soros


i'd have to say that i am happy with myself. i reached a +10% gain in just 28 days of trading. i learned some lessons along the way. but i dont think its enough to be called an expert. im still a beginner. what i do have is a strategy. and so far its working.


Aboitiz Power (AP) was very good to me. opened at its low of 22.15. high of 23.40. i was able to sell it at the closing price of 23.35. RSI is already at the overbought area, MACD just posted a buy signal last tuesday. i was also thinking of waiting it out, but i'd rather not risk it. i think its already satisfactory to sell whenever RSI is at its overbought levels and transfer the cash to another vehicle with a good condition and position.

although sometimes i find myself having emotion when the stock is up. before i had some emotion when the stock goes down (Perfect example was my transactions with RFM). but i think i have overcome this a bit. AP also went down after i bought the stock. but i stuck to my indicators which were showing good positions on the stock. it paid off.


Vista Land (VLL) opened at 3.36, high of 3.39, low of 3.32, finally closed at 3.33. RSI still below its overbought, MACD still hasnt converged but will post a buy signal when it will converge. still looking good.


now since i have some cash to invest, i did some reviews on the fundamentals of the following companies. these companies have been actively traded in the Philippine Stock Market for weeks.


Metropolitan Bank and Trust (MBT)
2009 Price/Earnings = 13.49
2010 Price/Book Value =1.63
2010 Debt/Equity = 9
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.61


SM Investments (SM)
2009 Price/Earnings = 12.39
2010 Price/Book Value = 1.51
2010 Debt/Equity = 1.36
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.40

Megaworld (MEG)
2009 Price/Earnings =9.36
2010 Price/Book Value = 1.14
2010 Debt/Equity = 0.72
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.88

Ayala Corp. (AC)
2009 Price/Earnings = 21.31
2010 Price/Book Value = 1.93
2010 Debt/Equity =1.33
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.52

Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)
2009 Price/Earnings =17.80
2010 Price/Book Value = 2.88
2010 Debt/Equity = 10.41
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.35

These 3 stocks have always been in the talks, so i also did a review on them..


SM Development Corp. (SMDC)
2009 Price/Earnings =10.58
2010 Price/Book Value = 3.50
2010 Debt/Equity = 1.19
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.29

Oriental Peninsula (ORE)
2009 Price/Earnings = Negative
2010 Price/Book Value = 2.58

2010 Debt/Equity = 0.13

2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.39

Philippine National Bank (PNB)
2009 Price/Earnings = 7.35
2010 Price/Book Value = 1.34
2010 Debt/Equity = 8.05
2010 Equity/Market Capitalization = 0.74


judging from the numbers, i think my safest bet would be MEG. the 3 banks MBT, BPI, and PNB have so much debt compared to their equities (although i wouldnt know if these figures are good for industry standards), AC is too high up on Price/Earnings Ratio, SMDC is too high up on P/BV ratio, ORE didnt make money last year.


checking the stock position on MEG based on the technicals, RSI is still below overbought levels, MACD will post a buy on converge.


ive been convinced on MEG based on its fundamentals, bought it at 2.42 today.

Daily Dip Notes: October 7, 2010
Metro Pacific Investments (MPI) dipped -2.68% today. RSI already posted a sell signal, while MACD converged yesterday posting a buy signal, conflicting signals, i sense more correction coming from a breakthrough at 4.0 resistance.

JG Summit (JGS) dipped -1.75%, both RSI and MACD posting sell signals. more correction for this stock. id wait for it to intersect with its upper moving average.

Manila Electric Company (Meralco MER) dipped -1.49%, RSI posted a sell signal days ago, while its MACD is about to converge and will be posting a sell signal too, more correction to come.

Lepanto Consolidated Mining A (LC) dipped -3.23%, RSI almost at mid level but just coming from a sell signal days ago, MACD also posted a sell signal yesterday, Mining stock, more correction to come.

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[cliffhanger]

My 29th Day as a Swing Trader
"I hate weekends because there is no stock market." Rene Rivkin


what do you think about the market?profit taking? or just being cautious for the US jobs report tonight?


my portfolio took a little dip today. i think its because i bought Vista Land (VLL) and Megaworld (MEG) not on dips.


VLL opened at 3.31, low of 3.24, high of 3.35 before it closed at 3.32.
RSI still below its overbought levels,
MACD will post a buy on converge.
still waiting. only 13M of volume though..


MEG opened at its high of 2.4, low of 2.31, closed at 2.36. this actually took a dip to as low as -3% just today.
RSI still below overbought, near mid level.
MACD will post a buy on converge.
one good thing is the volume of 122M, one of the most active stocks.


DAILY DIP NOTES:


Filinvest Land (FLI) took a dip of -2.13% today. i checked its fundamentals. pretty good numbers:
2010 Debt-to-equity = 0.52
current Price-to-Book Value = 0.87
2010 Price-to-earnings = 17.07
RSI at mid, MACD will post a buy on converge, good technical position..
bought FLI shares at 1.37

Alliance Global Group (AGI) took a dip of -2.78%.
RSI at its overbought level.
but MACD posted a buy signal 3 days ago.
ill be waiting for more correction.


Ayala Land (ALI) took a dip of -2.17%
RSI below overbought.
MACD looks like its going to post a sell signal soon.
more correction.


Philex Mining (PX) took a dip of -4.02%
RSI Near overbought
MACD will post a buy signal soon.
mining stock with no clear trend yet.

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com