Swing Trader/Day Trader Thread

[cliffhanger]

here's an email i got from a fellow newbie stock trader/investor..


Hi there,

I just saw your blogs and got inspired again in stock market. I just want to ask some advice or opinion as I am a newbie in stock trading. I have opened a bpi trade account as starters and not happy with its turn around time. Usually when you sell a stock, it will take 3 days before you can use the money again for reinvesting. The good thing about bpi trade is I can access it using a smartphone.

Can I use smart phone/pda to access citi seconline?

When you buy a stock, do you buy it on the opening price? Because that is what I do so the stock could match instantly, but at the end of the day, the stock closes lower or higher than I have expected. I tend to hold the stock within a day, and when I see its falling in value - i tried to sell it right away which I guess a pretty newbie move.

Can you recommend a website or ebook I could read to improve myself? I need to know how to pick a stock, how many days to hold it, and how would I know if I need to sell it.

I traded this week and bought 5 stocks and resulted 5 loses.

Hope to hear from you soon. Thanks.

Ken

Hi ken!

thank you so much for reading my blog!

i am also a newbie. and we should not be ashamed of that. being truthful to one's self is i think the best asset we can have no matter what state the market is in.

now to answer your questions..

i've never tried trading through BPI TRADE. but i've heard a lot of people complain about it. i think its the oldest online stock brokerage system in the Philippines. generally, i heard that their system is really slow.

right now im actually using www.citiseconline.com.ph. im ok with its system. fast, quotes in real time, and has interactive charts too.

i have also been recently exposed to www.firstmetrosec.com.ph, they also have a fast system. although i think charting is faster with citisec. the advantage of firstmetro is its research, especially on the financial valuations, which are up-to-date. i think they provide the valuations and financial figures for every company that is listed in the Philippine Stock Exchange. citisec provide their valuations too, but they only choose to do research on those companies that are "popular" or active in the market. but i think both citisec and firstmetro are accessible through your smart phone or PDA.

that being said, i think i am more inclined for you to use www.firstmetrosec.com.ph. you will see why because of the book that i am suggesting below.


for those who want to trade or invest in any stock market, i strongly suggest reading "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham. he is the first one who formally conceptualized "Value Investing", which is basically investing in those stocks that are fairly valued in the market compared to their true value found in their financial statements. FYI, Graham is Warren Buffett's mentor.


for those stock traders and investors who haven't read this book, i suggest you stop what you are doing right now. start reading "the intelligent investor" and finish it so that you may be reminded of what you are actually doing by investing in the stock market, which is investing in Businesses not in numbers. i hope someday everyone who is somehow involved in the market will be reminded of this fact. when that happens, we will be experiencing more stability in the market. education is the key.


ken, in first metro, you can find most of the data you will need to know the actual value of the companies you would like to invest in. one advantage of first metro is that you only need to have a Metrobank bank account that is also enrolled in internet banking. no minimum required. i think in citisec, u have to have a minimum of PHP30,000.00 to open an account.


good luck to you ken!


please do contact me again if you have any questions or consultations. lets work together.


cliffhanger

my portfolio ---> http://www.pinoyswingtrader.com

[tarantrader]

Can you recommend a website or ebook I could read to improve myself? I need to know how to pick a stock, how many days to hold it, and how would I know if I need to sell it.

Join the seminar on technical analysis. This is your best option.

[cliffhanger]

My 30th Day as a Swing Trader
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years." Warren Buffett

im down.. but not out yet..


it turns out that on my 30th day, i actually lost my 10% gain and im down to 7%. i think most of it is due to the market correcting.


Filinvest Land (FLI) opened at its high of 1.39, and closed at its low of 1.37. RSI at mid level, MACD not converging yet but will post a buy signal on converge. its actually close to intersecting on its higher moving average. sticking this one out.


Megaworld (MEG) also opened at its high of 2.36, also closed at its low of 2.30. RSI also at its mid levels, MACD will post buy on converge. also looking to intersect with its higher moving average. also sticking this one out.


Vista Land (VLL) also opened at 3.30, low of 3.26, closed at 3.27. RSI at mid levels, MACD will post buy on converge. one bad thing on this stock is its volume, only 19M of shares traded. but lets see what happens.


DAILY DIP NOTES:


Well, aside from my own stocks that has dipped, there are a number of stocks too that have notable dips.


Universal Robina Corp. (URC) dipped -2.57%, RSI at overbought levels, MACD not converging yet but will post a sell on converge. more correction expected.


Philex Mining (PX) dipped -3.66%, RSI at near mid, MACD not converging yet but will post a buy on converge. technically a good buy for now but its up to you if you want to get involve with this mining stock.


Ayala Land (ALI) dipped -3.33%, RSI very low, MACD just posted a sell signal today. it actually is already intersecting with its higher moving average. i'd buy it for a good swing trade.


SM Prime Holdings (SMPH) dipped -2.35%, RSI at mid levels, MACD just converged last friday and posted a sell signal. this would also be a good buy.


a lot of buy signals, i think, are due to the correction that is happening. there might be more correction to happen this week. maybe it also be good to wait this week out to the bottom of this week's correction. or if you would like to buy, just expect some correction to continue to happen.

MY PORTFOLIO ---> http://WWW.PINOYSWINGTRADER.COM

[cliffhanger]

My 31st Day as a Swing Trader
"I've found that when the market's going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy. You won't get there by reading 'Now is the time to buy.'" Peter Lynch


i think its safe to say that this the correction everyone has been waiting for.


due to a lot of things, profit taking, investors taking cash reserves for Cebu Pacific IPO, what else is out there to justify this?

i think my high of 10% gain has been cut to almost half...

Filinvest Land (FLI) opened at its high of 1.38, closed at its low of 1.33.
RSI near mid-low,
MACD still hasnt converged to post a buy signal,
price just intersected with its higher moving average.


Megaworld (MEG) opened at 2.30, then went to a high of 2.33, went all the way down to its low of 2.22, finally closed at 2.24.
RSI at mid level
MACD still hasnt converged to post a buy signal,
price too just intersected with its higher moving average.


Vista Land (VLL) opened at its high of 3.23, closed at its low of 3.20..
RSI at mid level
MACD no converge yetto post a buy signal,
price too intersected with its higher moving average.

so what now? it seems like all of my stocks have dipped. im worried though. i bought these stocks at very cheap levels in terms of its fundamentals. im thankful for the comfort level that good fundamentals are giving me.

the PHISIX actually went down -1.24% today to 4,166.52 levels. some say the correction will go all the way down to 3800 levels. if thats true, then im thinking of cashing in now and investing back in when its near the bottom. what do you think?


DAILY DIP NOTES:
so much dip today ill only be posting the top 5 most notable dips


Lopez Holdings (LPZ) dipped -5.19% today.
RSI very low, close to its oversold level
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
interesected with its higher moving average


SM Prime Holdings (SMPH) dipped -4% today
RSI very low, close to its oversold level
MACD no converge yet to post a buy, just posted a sell signal 2 trading days ago
crossed its higher moving average

Ayala Land (ALI) dipped -3.44% today, almost the same condition with SMPH
RSI very low, close to its oversold level
MACD no converge yet to post a buy, just posted a sell signal 2 trading days ago
crossed its higher moving average

Manila Electric Company (MER) dipped -3.15% today,
RSI at mid
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
no crossing yet with its moving average

First Philippine Holdings (FPH) dipped -3.0% today,
RSI now at mid
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
no crossing yet with its moving average but its getting there

[cliffhanger]

My 32nd Day as a Swing Trader
"Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain.. and most fools do." Dale Carnegie

more lessons to be learned..


ive got to say im a little confused on what to do. i read some advice not to invest till after the Cebu Pac IPO.. we'll see. ill be doing some more research..



but my instincts are telling me that the Cebu Pacific IPO is a significant reason why the index has gone down. people setting aside some cash to subscribe for the IPO. firstmetro's deadline for subscription is today, while citisec's will be tomorrow. and the opening day is not till 2 weeks, October 26. that means that there is still a chance for a rebound from the mayhem that's been caused this week.


boys and girls, i think im going to be riding my stocks out till next week.

this week's damage has been felt mostly by the property sector, which is all of my portfolio. i think its due to the postponement of the Real Estate Investment Trust (read more about it here REIT primer here http://www.pse.com.ph/html/NewsRoom/pdf ... 20file.pdf). but the industry hasn't really depended on this program. i think this event caused a little itch on the industry, but it should not develop to be a rash.


special thanks to pau (http://pautrades.tumblr.com) you guys should check out his profile too. he actually made a better move by cashing in last week. congrats pau!

special thanks to genkumag (http://genkumag.wordpress.com) i really appreciate the specific advice this guy gives me. he knows his technicals, and it seems like he's making good money..


you will see my portfolio do a bit of a rebound from yesterday.. as with the whole PSE index


Filinvest Land (FLI) opened at 1.33, low of 1.32, then closed at its high of 1.36.
RSI at mid,
MACD no converge yet to give a buy signal,
price at its higher moving average level


Megaworld (MEG) opened at its low of 2.25, high of 2.35, finally closed at 2.33
RSI at mid,
MACD no converge yet to give a buy signal,
price now above from its higher moving average level, up from yesterday's intersection

Vista Land (VLL) opened at 3.15, low of 3.10, high of 3.18, finally closed at 3.17
RSI still at mid,
MACD no converge yet to give a buy signal,
price still below its higher moving average.
volume is at 20M level.


DAILY DIP NOTES:

Top 5 most notable dips


Philippine National Bank (PNB) had a dip of -3.66%
RSI at mid
MACD no converge yet to a buy signal
Nearing intersection with its moving average
PNB is actually looking like its on a trend

DMCI Holdings (DMC) dipped -2.65%
RSI still at overbought
MACD no converge yet to a sell signal
far from intersecting with its moving average
i predict more correction


JG Summit Holdings (JGS) dipped -2.57%
RSI came from an overbought level
MACD no converge yet to a buy signal
nearing intersection with moving average,
id wait for more correction


SM Investments (SM) dipped -1.90%
RSI at low level but not yet at oversold
MACD no converge yet to a buy signal
Passed its intersection with its moving average
good stock for a little swing trade


EEI Corp. (EEI) dipped -1.68%
RSI at low level but not yet at oversold
MACD no converge yet to a buy signal
Passed its intersection with its moving average
good stock for a little swing trade, but id require more patience on this one.

[cliffhanger]

My 33rd Day as a Swing Trader
"When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom." Peter Lynch

i honestly dont know what to say.. its been a good roller coaster ride that's never going to end.

i was seconds away from selling one of these stocks yesterday. but chances were favorable to me.

but we should never depend on chance.

i have to admit, i still get influenced by my emotions. especially when people are criticizing your every move. you get a lot of second thoughts.

part of what my blog is all about is that i should be honest about how i am feeling. because lets be honest, nobody is ever cool about money. its a touchy issue. and whats good about this blog is that people can see all of my moves, read all of my thoughts, and share their thoughts as well. they may be encouraging, dismantling, or even down right sarcastic; its all part of being a stock trader or investor. there will always be people who will kick you even when you are down, and be your friends during the good times. in the end, all you have is your own self, the trust in yourself that in the end it will all turn out fine, whether you will end up with a lot of money or none at all. it will turn out to be ok.

so for those who have been supportive, thank you and i really hope you do well too.

and for those who want to see me fail, please keep doing what you have been doing. you guys do teach me a lot.

my gains went from 10% last week, to just 5% days ago, now back to 10%. good rebound for the market index too which gained 0.94% from yesterday.

Filinvest Land (FLI) opened at 1.38, went to a low of 1.36, high of 1.41, finally closed at 1.40
RSI still at mid regions
MACD no converge yet to signal a buy
Price already above its higher moving average.

Megaworld (MEG) opened at 2.40, went to a low of 2.37, high of 2.51, finally closed at 2.49
RSI near overbought levels
MACD still no converge yet to post a buy
Price way above its higher moving average
MEG just closed at 6.87% from yesterday, 2nd most active stock today, 563M worth of shares traded

Vista Land (VLL) opened at 3.23, went to a low of 3.22, high of 3.28, finally closed at 3.26
RSI still at mid level
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
Price now above its moving average.
Volume traded on this stock was only 17M though.

i think there is much juice left for FLI and VLL. MEG really gained a lot today, but its still under overbought levels in its RSI, plus MACD hasnt converged, theres probably some juice left in this stock too.
DAILY DIP NOTES:

out of the most active stocks, there are 3 notable dips considering that most are in the color green today..

Metropolitan Bank & Trust (MBT) dipped -2.64%
RSI at mid levels
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
already intersected with its higher moving average.
the #1 most active stock today, maybe a good opportunity to swing trade on this one, probably would rebound tomorrow or next week.

JG Summit (JGS) dipped -1.22%
RSI near mid
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
no intersection yet with its moving average but its getting there
i sense more correction to come. there's something going with this stock too, with its tie-up with its much awaited Cebu Pac IPO... you might want to read more on that if you want to get involved with JGS.

Polar Property Holdings (PO) dipped -2.70%
RSI at overbought levels
MACD no converge yet to post a signal
its way high up above its moving average..
more correction too for this stock, it just doubled in just 8 days (3.5 to 7 in October 1-8)

MY PORTFOLIO ---> http://WWW.PINOYSWINGTRADER.COM

[harley]

you know how to get rid of emotions? be systematic with your trades this will make you survive trading in the long run. it was earlier mentioned here that you need a trading plan. have you developed one?

if you could answer these questions specifically then you already have your system. you just have to execute it consistently.
Position Sizing: how do you determine the number of shares to buy/sell? what's your risk appetite?
Entries: when/how do you enter?
Exits: when/how do you exit a profitable trade?
Stops: when do you exit a losing trade?
Drawdowns: how much of a drawdown can you risk in your capital? can you still trade consistently if you are down 20%?

sana you could post these in your blog along with some of your trading rules.

If you have a system and follow it consistently, your trading will be consistent despite your inner emotional struggles from a series of losses or a very large profit.

[cliffhanger]

My 34th Day as a Swing Trader
"In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." Peter Lynch


anyone of you subscribe to the Cebu Pacific IPO? im hearing a lot of mixed analysis on this subject. its been a hot topic for months now. i even think that the market's attention on cebu pac caused the correction last tuesday, people we're cashing in trying to subscribe to the IPO.

apparently, the last time the PSE had an IPO was 2 years ago. i guess come October 26, everyone's eyes will be on cebu pacific. some even say that on that day, cebu pac will be the most active stock, leaving the rest of our stocks.

i don't know. something inside of me thinks that there's just too much attention given to cebu pac. i haven't read there financial statements. but im guessing that other blue chip stock statements are far better than cebu pac in terms of financial health conditions. im thinking that its just the market getting ahead of themselves again. the old Benjamin Graham in his book "intelligent investor" advised to stay away from IPOs at all times.


but who's to say you cant make money by just tagging along? there is also that opportunity of riding the market wave. just make sure to get out of it with some cash in hand before you hit the piles.


as you can see, i can't subscribe to the Cebu Pacific IPO because i'm riding on other vehicles now.


Filinvest Land (FLI) opened at 1.40, low of 1.38, finally closed back to 1.40.
RSI still near mid-levels
MACD no converge to post a buy
still above its higher moving average
i think theres more juice left on this one.

Megaworld (MEG) opened at 2.50, went down to a low of 2.44, high of 2.52, finally closed back to 2.50
RSI nearing its overbought level
MACD is just about to converge to post a buy
way above its moving average now, im smelling the peak for this run but not quite there yet..


Vista Land (VLL) opened at its high of 3.25, went to a low of 3.21, finally closed at 3.24
RSI still very much at its mid
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
price still flirting with its higher moving average.
i think volume is the problem on this one, it only had 8M worth of shares traded today. someday, some attention will be focused on vll, and on that day it will finally break.


DAILY DIP NOTES: TOP 5


Metropolitan Bank and Trust (MBT) dipped -4.04%
RSI nearing its oversold levels.
MACD no converge to post a buy
way crossed its higher moving average, looks like its on its way to cross its mid moving average
2nd most active stock today.
i dont know, is something going on with MBT? it dipped a total of 7% including yesterday.
i think the volume can pull it up to rebound this monday.


Atlas Cons Mining (AT) dipped -2.90%
RSI at overbought levels, it will post a sell signal if it continues to go down
MACD looks like it will post a sell signal soon on converge
its way above its higher moving average.
mining stock, i sense more correction


Ayala land (ALI) dipped -2.35%
RSI at mid level
MACD no converge to post a buy
flirting with its higher moving average
might be a good buy to rebound next week


SM Prime Holdings (SMPH) dipped -2.34%
RSI very near its oversold levels now
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
it looks like its going to cross its middle moving average
might be far from the bottom. id wait for more correction, or till RSI is at its oversold levels before i buy


Manila Electric Co. (MER) dipped -2.25%
RSI still at mid
MACD no converge yet to post a buy
looks like its moving towards its higher moving average
id wait some more before i buy.

[cliffhanger]

My 35th Day as a Swing Trader
"If you don’t follow the stock market, you are missing some amazing drama." Mark Cuban


The PSEI went down at -0.03% today and my own went back to +9% again. we have seen some drama unfold since last week.

will i be expecting negative comments from my readers again? please do express whatever is on your mind, just be honest

but id like to cash in on my holdings this week in preparation for the cebu pac ipo. i think much attention will be put on it. i will be looking at considerable dips next week to capitalize on some stocks.

Filinvest Land (FLI) opened at its high of 1.40, low of 1.35, finally closed at its low 1.36.
RSI still at mid
MACD still no converge to buy
its now below its higher moving average.
still waiting for this to gain, will sell on overbought levels based on RSI


Megaworld (MEG) opened at 2.5, high of 2.55, went down to a low of 2.44, finally closed at 2.45.
RSI still below overbought levels
MACD close to converge to a buy
price above its moving average.
will be selling on overbought levels in the RSI too


Vista Land (VLL) opened at 3.26, high of 3.30, to a low of 3.22, finally closed at 3.24
RSI at mid level
MACD still no converge to a buy, wont be converging soon.
its looks like its exactly on its higher moving average.
volume of 23M, more volume will increase the price for this one.
still waiting....


DAILY DIP NOTES: top 5


FLI and MEG are on the top 5 dips today..


Atlas Mining (AT) dipped -2.75%..
RSI already posted a sell signal
MACD looks like it will post a sell signal soon
still above its moving average,
mining stock, more correction to come


Lepanto Mining A (LC) dipped -2.30%
RSI at mid levels
MACD no converge yet to a buy signal
nearing its higher moving average,
mining stock, more correction to come

Energy Development Corp. (EDC) dipped -1.96%
RSI at mid levels
MACD no converge yet to a buy signal
nearing its higher moving average too.
probably a good buy and wait for weeks to recover.

[tarantrader]

you know how to get rid of emotions? be systematic with your trades this will make you survive trading in the long run. it was earlier mentioned here that you need a trading plan. have you developed one?

if you could answer these questions specifically then you already have your system. you just have to execute it consistently.
Position Sizing: how do you determine the number of shares to buy/sell? what's your risk appetite?
Entries: when/how do you enter?
Exits: when/how do you exit a profitable trade?
Stops: when do you exit a losing trade?
Drawdowns: how much of a drawdown can you risk in your capital? can you still trade consistently if you are down 20%?

sana you could post these in your blog along with some of your trading rules.

If you have a system and follow it consistently, your trading will be consistent despite your inner emotional struggles from a series of losses or a very large profit.

Obvious di tayo pinapakinggan harley. Hayaan mo, plano nya ito. Di natin masabi at baka mas gumagana para sa kanya ito.

Whatever works for you dude.