FPH (First Philippine Holdings Corporation)

[yeahbah]

Chart update

Hold.

fph.png

Arnold,

Bakit hold? Bearish bat din ba?

Bearish Gartley po. Dahil nasa 61.8% ang B point. 38.2 to 50% lang ang Bat at kailangan nasa 88.6% ang D, 78.6% naman sa Gartley. At importante rin na mag converge ang CD extension sa XA retracement. OO sadya kitang nililito he he

[rklibre]

Chart update

Hold.

fph.png

Arnold,

Bakit hold? Bearish bat din ba?

Bearish Gartley po. Dahil nasa 61.8% ang B point. 38.2 to 50% lang ang Bat at kailangan nasa 88.6% ang D, 78.6% naman sa Gartley. At importante rin na mag converge ang CD extension sa XA retracement. OO sadya kitang nililito he he

Ok sir Arnold. Thanks.

Hindi ka naman si Confucius. The more info i get The more confuse I am. joke lang. so what will be the possible scenario ?

[yeahbah]

he he 61.5 - 66 is my best guestimate

[kropotkin15]

he he 61.5 - 66 is my best guestimate

"guestimate" I like that.

[kewldude]

Safe pa ba mag average up or should I observe muna price action @ 55 if it will continue to rise or reverse?

[yeahbah]

depende na yan sa system mo. if it tells you to average up, then go. Sa case ng system ko, no.

[yeahbah]

Breakout Buy. If the price closes above the red line, that is a buy for me. Must have above average volume.

Stop: 44
TP: 55 (Bearish Gartley), 61.5, 66 (Bearish Butterfly) -- scale out if you like

fph.png

Trade closed +5

[WallStreet]

Hi, Yeahbah. you mentioned in the TUNA thread that FPH pattern isnt over yet, and possibly forming a bearish butterfly ( TP between 61.5 to 66 ). What made you think that the pattern which started out as an initial bearish gartley has now morphed into a butterfly? is it bec. pt D exceeded the 1.618 BC ext ( 57.5 ) or the .786 XA leg ( 55.2 ) exceeded pt.D? Could it be possible that the gartley pattern has just overextended and the pattern is already done? ( i hope not .)

Assuming this isnt done yet, could it be doing a crab, rather than a butterfly bec. pt B is at .618 XA, not .786. Pt. D will then be at 66 ( 1.618XA ), with PRZ at 64.5 ( 261.8BC ext) and 68 (314BC ext ).

not really sure if Im reading it right. hope you can enlighten me some more.
Thanks!!!

[yeahbah]

Hi, Yeahbah. you mentioned in the TUNA thread that FPH pattern isnt over yet, and possibly forming a bearish butterfly ( TP between 61.5 to 66 ). What made you think that the pattern which started out as an initial bearish gartley has now morphed into a butterfly? is it bec. pt D exceeded the 1.618 BC ext ( 57.5 ) or the .786 XA leg ( 55.2 ) exceeded pt.D? Could it be possible that the gartley pattern has just overextended and the pattern is already done? ( i hope not .)

Assuming this isnt done yet, could it be doing a crab, rather than a butterfly bec. pt B is at .618 XA, not .786. Pt. D will then be at 66 ( 1.618XA ), with PRZ at 64.5 ( 261.8BC ext) and 68 (314BC ext ).

not really sure if Im reading it right. hope you can enlighten me some more.
Thanks!!!

Yes, it has exceeded 78.6 XA. No such thing as an overextended Gartley. The fib levels in harmonic patterns are very specific. XA in gartley should be at 78.6, it could exceed a bit but shouldn't hit 100%.

It has to do a butterfly first before it can do a crab. I'm aware of the imperfection of the potential pattern but 61.8% is tolerable for a butterfly, 78.6 is ideal. There is room for subjectivity for the B and C points but there's none for the D point. So if the price go above the D, then that's the time you can consider the potential crab.

[yeahbah]

You got it

The cycle indicator is on the forward testing stage and still experimental, but my backtesting results are satisfactory to make me more confident in my calls.

There's a good chance that this Bearish Gartley could morph into a Butterfly because of the cycle indicator is at low and It takes a few weeks before it reaches the peak of the cycle. This case is similar to AGI's in which the AB=CD pattern has been extended to form the Butterfly pattern. Of course it doesn't hurt to take some chips off the table between 55-56. Sigurista baga.

I'm quoting myself.

Above is the post where I called a hold on FPH and that Gartley could morph into a Butterfly. The price was nearing 78.6 but the cycle indicator was at low.