I’m finally back after a long hiatus (sorry the jetlag was too much for me to write something worth your while reading). We will be looking at EUR/USD and see some possible trading setups that might be worth the trade.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Below is the daily chart of the euro-dollar. You can see that there is this steep trend line (red color line) which marks the downside move since the unbelievable USD rally. The purple lines are my fib levels of the down swing from 1.6032 to 1.3256 (Btw, I only use 38.2, 50 and 61.8. If I use all the fib ratios, I will be so damn accurate because there will be a ton of those fib levels in the chart which seems to make all prices hit them).  It might not be obvious,  but there is an EMA(62) as well that sits nicely behind that red trendline.

EUR/USD – Where will it go? 4HR Perspective

To tell you frankly, you’re guess is as good as mine. I’m not really good in forecasting where prices might be in the near future but we can try to see what it is trying to do currently and based on this, we might be able to plan some trades.

Below is the chart of the euro-dollar using the 4HR timeframe. Its very safe to say that the euro-dollar is currently on a range (with some spikes here and there on the support range).  The resistance of the range which is around 1.3770 offers a strong resistance point. Those candles at Oct 3 area (which acted as support back then), the EMA 62 and those 2 candles on Oct 9.

EUR/USD Trade Plan

Long Bias – The plan is to go long if ever 1.3770 is broken with a 4HR candle and closes above it. If the market stays like this still then it will definitely safer to wait for a break and pullback test. For this setup, the target is definitely somewhere around the 1.43 area (check the daily chart why, EMA62, Fib 61.8 retrace, the whole shebang is in that area).

Short Bias – I would not trade a short position if ever this pair breaks that support area. This support area is where the two monthly trends intersects. So expect some nasty whipsaws along the way as the bears and the bulls fight. I will let them be. I would like to see a rally down and then after that, I will look for a nice entry  (we’ll if you like to play FOREX pinball you can enter immediately ).

Goodluck and Happy pip Hunting.

As always, being a responsible citizen ( and not like those crooks in Wall Street that caused this mess), I leave you with our disclaimer below.

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. This is not any offer for you to go into any trade whatsoever. I will not be responsible in any way in case your dog died, your house got burned, you got fired , your wife caught you cheating and beat you up after reading this post.