The PHP has been consolidating since the last time we wrote about it.  Earlier, we thought that given the recent trend, it was very possible that the peso was going to return to the 52 peso level.

As it happened recently, the peso has proven us wrong. Given the neutral nature of the symmetrical triangle formation, this could go either direction.  But the peso has only recently decided to strengthen further against the USD.

The moving averages and the MACD only confirm what we’ve seen since Nov. 2008; that the peso has been consolidating and has only broken the triangle a few days ago.  The support of the triangle was at 47.30 and as we can see on the MACD, the downward momentum of the peso is accelerating.

Given this scenario, we see a downside target of the peso to 43.95.  As to how long, our projection is that this most likely could happen within 5 months.

Looks like Uncle Sam is beleaguered again.

Recommendation: Sell USD
Resistance: 47.30